MEMO: Mikie Sherrill is the Best Candidate to Win New Jersey’s Governor Race

January 31, 2025

TO:          Interested Parties
FROM:      EMILYs List
RE:          Mikie Sherrill is the Best Candidate to Win New Jersey’s Governor Race 
DATE:       1/31/2025

EMILYs List-endorsed candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, is the best-positioned Democratic candidate for New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race. Rep. Sherrill knows how to build broad coalitions and win tough races. In 2018, she flipped a Republican stronghold in the largest swing from red to blue in the entire country and since then, Rep. Sherrill has outperformed nearly every Democrat in New Jersey. 

Rep. Sherrill is a mother of four and has a lifetime of service to New Jersey and our country, including as a helicopter pilot in the U.S. Navy for nearly 10 years, as an Assistant U.S. Attorney, and as a member of Congress. Rep. Sherrill has proven to be a bipartisan leader and has a clear record championing reproductive freedom, as well as working to secure the federal funding needed to move forward the largest infrastructure project in American history. In 2023, she was named the most effective U.S. House lawmaker from New Jersey by the nonpartisan Center for Effective Lawmaking. 

Rep. Sherrill is the candidate best positioned to put together the broad coalition necessary to win the New Jersey governor’s race in 2025.

I. Rep. Sherrill is consistently a top vote-getter. She won more votes than any New Jersey House candidate in her first race in 2018. As of 2022, despite the fact there are six New Jersey districts more Democratic-leaning than NJ-11, Rep. Sherrill won more votes than any New Jersey U.S. House Democrat.

II. Rep. Sherrill has her own base of support and she routinely outperforms the top of the ticket. In 2024, she received more votes than Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Andy Kim across all three counties. In 2020, she earned more votes in the district than Sen. Cory Booker. In 2018, she earned more votes than Sen. Bob Menendez in the district. 

III. Rep. Sherrill is a winning candidate in her own right and knows how to relate to and communicate with voters. In 2022, she outperformed President Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of support and Gov. Phil Murphy’s 2017 and 2021 margins of support in the district. 

  • Outperformed Biden’s 2020 margin by 2.2 points (Sherrill +19% vs. Biden +16.8%) 
  • Outperformed Murphy’s 2021 margin by 15 points (Sherrill +19% vs. Murphy +4%)
  • Outperformed Murphy’s 2017 margin by 7 points (Sherrill +19% vs. Murphy +12%)

Note: Numbers reflect Murphy and Biden numbers in NJ-11 following redistricting, and not the 2012 district lines. 

IV. Rep. Sherrill has built a strong electoral coalition with her focus on getting things done for all New Jerseyans and does well with Democrats, Unaffiliateds, and Republicans, proving she is best positioned to defeat the Republican candidate in the general election. When she was at the top of the ticket in 2022, her estimated support was: 

  • 86% of Democrats, roughly 102k votes out of 119k voters
  • 24% of Republicans, roughly 22k votes out of 91k voters
  • 60% of Unaffiliateds, roughly 37k votes out of 62k voters

Note: Estimates based on total votes cast per party affiliation (Democrat, Republican, Unaffiliated), polling, and Sherrill’s raw vote share.

V. Rep. Sherrill helps build strong campaigns at the local level, delivering wins for Democrats in every corner of her district.

  • Since taking office, Rep. Sherrill has helped build Democratic leadership at the local level in historically Republican Morris County. In 2020, 2022, and 2024, Democratic candidates won more than 50% of races. 
  • Despite New Jersey’s rightward shift in 2024, Rep. Sherrill helped down-ballot Democrats not only defend their seats, but expand their footprint in NJ-11.
    • Passaic: Held every local seat (Little Falls; Woodland Park); swept the Passaic County-wide races and defeated the only Republican county commissioner.
    • Morris: Flipped control of the council in Morris Plains, a purple town; picked up seats in Mountain Lakes and Chatham Township, securing complete Democratic control of municipal government.
    • Won 37 of 39 Democratic incumbent seats up for election within the district. 

VI. Voters are motivated by Rep. Sherrill’s candidacy and her record of getting things done for the people she serves, and she has driven a significant increase in turnout since first taking office.

  • As a first-time candidate running a grassroots campaign in the 2018 midterm, she delivered a 24% increase in voter turnout compared to the 2014 midterm election (58% to 34%)
  • Since 2014, midterm turnout with Rep. Sherrill on the ticket has increased by an average of 17.75%

VII. Rep. Sherrill already has a lead in all publicly released polling of the 2025 gubernatorial race, with strong favorability and name recognition statewide that increases as voters learn more about her.

  • Global Strategy Group (November 2024): 
    • “Sherrill… has the support of 24% of likely Democratic primary voters.”
    • “The poll found that Sherrill’s numbers grew more than her rivals when respondents were given positive information about each of the candidates.”
  • Laborers’ International Union of North America (November 2024):  
    • “The poll of likely Democratic primary voters…shows Sherrill leading her next-closest opponent in the six-candidate field, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 25%-13%.”
    • “Sherrill’s ratings are at 39% favorable to 4% unfavorable.”
  • One New Jersey United (July 2024):
    • “Sherrill leading Baraka, 18%-12%. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) and former Senate President Steve Sweeney are each at 8%, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop at 7% and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, the former mayor of Montclair, at 2%.” 
  • GQR (March 2024): 
    • “A recent statewide poll in New Jersey finds that Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is in the strongest position to win the Democratic gubernatorial primary. She is well-known and better liked than most of her potential competitors. Her profile holds broad regional, ideological, and demographic appeal.” 
  • Fairleigh Dickinson University (January 2023): 
    • “Sherrill has an early lead in favorability, and she’s proven herself as a world class fundraiser,” said Cassino.
    • Sherrill had 41% name recognition statewide.
    • Leads in favorability with 28%. 
    • Lowest unfavorability with only 1% unfavorable.

IX. Top New Jersey Republican operative stated that their party will be “nervous” if Rep. Sherrill runs given her personal story and record of delivering for the district.

  • NJ.com, Friendly Fire: Advice for Tammy Murphy, and why the GOP Fears Mikie Sherrill
    • Mike DuHaime: “…I can tell you Republicans will be nervous if Sherrill runs. Sherrill has a compelling life story and has unapologetically remained true to progressive values in Congress. Yet, she smartly governed in a bipartisan way during COVID, working with Republican elected officials in her district to get COVID relief to businesses and families. Her district has liked that approach, and she now wins what was once a safe Republican district by 20 points. Republicans certainly see her as formidable if she were to seek statewide office.” 

EMILYs List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, works to elect Democratic pro-choice women up and down the ballot and across the country with a goal of fighting for our rights and our communities. Over nearly 40 years, EMILYs List has raised nearly $950 million to help Democratic women win competitive elections by recruiting and training candidates, supporting and helping build strong campaigns, researching the issues that impact women and families, running one of the most impactful independent expenditure operations for Democrats, and turning out women voters to the polls. Since our founding in 1985, we have helped elect the country’s first woman as vice president, 192 women to the House, 29 to the Senate, 20 governors, and over 1,600 women to state and local office. More than 40% of the candidates EMILYs List has helped elect to Congress have been women of color. Visit www.emilyslist.org for more information.