September 2008

TO: Majority Council Members
FROM: Ellen R. Malcolm
DATE: September 7, 2008

The last four weeks have been extraordinarily busy.

  • We hosted 2,600 guests, including dozens of elected women, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Michelle Obama, at our convention rally in Denver;
  • We’ve released two major national surveys on women voters;
  • We’ve trained and dispatched 39 young people to progressive campaigns and committees through our Campaign Corps program;
  • We’ve added six more candidates to our list, bringing the number of candidates EMILY’s List is recommending to 33 (and the cycle isn’t over yet);
  • And we are executing our most ambitious WOMEN VOTE! plan ever, reaching out to nearly 6.5 million women voters, talking to them about the issues that matter most to them -- and mobilizing them on behalf of progressive Democrats from Obama-Biden on down the ticket, including women candidates across the country.

Let’s start with some cold, hard facts. . .

EMILY's List surveys reflect importance of women in November

Generational differences examined in depth Palin selection viewed as political theater

I’m not sure what was going through John McCain’s head when he decided to pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate (frankly, I’m not sure I want to know what goes on inside John McCain’s head), but if he thought Palin would draw women to his candidacy, he was sadly mistaken. Just two days after McCain announced his selection of Palin, EMILY’s List conducted a poll to find out women voters’ reactions, both to the initial pick and after hearing more information about Palin’s extreme right-wing views on abortion, creationism, and the environment.

I thought Palin did a good job delivering her speech at the convention, but when it comes to her experience and positions on issues, women are not impressed.

According to our poll, an overwhelming majority of women (59 percent) believe McCain chose Palin out of political expediency. Only 20 percent buy the McCain campaign’s story that McCain truly believes Palin has the experience and qualities needed to be a good vice president.

In fact, choosing Palin cost McCain one key advantage he had over Sen. Obama in our earlier Women’s Monitor poll: experience. In our August survey (more about this in a moment), women gave McCain a 35-point advantage over Obama on the question of having the experience and knowledge to be president. After selecting Palin, McCain’s advantage in this area was completely wiped out, with women now giving the Obama-Biden ticket a 15-point advantage in this area over McCain-Palin.

McCain didn’t just squander his significant advantage in experience; in doing so, he also squandered his persona as a man of principle. I don’t think I can put it better than Mike Murphy, one of McCain’s closest confidantes, who said on MSNBC when he thought his microphone was off: “The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.”

Women voters pull further away from the McCain-Palin ticket upon learning of Sarah Palin’s far-right views (she opposes stem cell research, opposes abortion even for victims of rape and incest, supports abstinence-only sex education, favors teaching creationism in schools, opposes funding for pre-K and drop-out prevention programs, and on and on). Undecided voters in particular -- even those inclined toward McCain -- move away when they learn that a McCain-Palin administration would be virtually indistinguishable from the Bush-Cheney administration on the issues that have a direct impact on their lives.

And this is where the heart of the campaign to win women’s votes lies. Even with a woman on the GOP ticket, women voters believe that Barack Obama and Joe Biden better understand the issues that matter most to women by a margin of 53 to 35 percent -- a margin that EMILY’s List, through WOMEN VOTE!, will work to increase over the next eight weeks.

Even women who supported Hillary in the Democratic primary -- the women McCain has so cynically made a play for -- say Palin’s inclusion on the ticket makes them less likely to support McCain. In fact, at the start of the poll Obama’s lead over McCain among Clinton voters was a massive 44 points (69 percent for Obama, 25 percent for McCain); after learning more about Sarah Palin’s background and issue positions, Obama’s lead among Clinton women expands to 54 percent (75 percent for Obama, 21 percent for McCain). If McCain hoped to pick up Clinton voters with Palin, his gambit appears to have backfired. It is a poor choice that underestimates women voters and how seriously we take this election.

EMILY’s List is taking the lead in reaching out to women voters, targeting nearly 6.5 million women whose participation is critical and making sure they understand the record, views, and agenda of the Republican party. We will use the findings of this survey and one done just a few weeks prior to shape a national get-out-the-vote effort that will motivate the women voters who have stayed home in the past to come out and support progressive Democrats for the very highest office, right down the line -- particularly our women candidates.

Garin-Hart-Yang Strategic Research, led by Geoff Garin and Molly O’Rourke, conducted this poll by telephone Sunday, August 31, and Monday, Sept. 1 -- immediately after the Palin announcement, but before news about Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy was widely reported. The survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of 800 Democratic, Republican, and independent women who are likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percent.

Setting the stage for WOMEN VOTE!

Just before the convention, we released the findings of another national poll, also conducted by Geoff and Molly, that provides a much broader overview of the women’s electorate for 2008 and touches upon key generational differences among Gen Y (age 18-27), Gen X (age 28-43), Baby Boomer (age 44-62), and Senior women (age 63 and up). We discovered that the gender gap is alive and well, with women favoring Obama over McCain by a margin of 12 points in a head-to-head trial heat. This is a solid improvement over John Kerry’s narrow margin of victory among women in 2004. But the key is holding and expanding this margin -- something Democrats are relying on EMILY’s List to do through WOMEN VOTE!. For me, the greatest story coming out of this survey is the support from Gen Y women for a women’s movement to advance women’s political interests in America. Reports of the death of feminism for younger women have been greatly exaggerated! In fact, 78 percent of Gen Y women feel that there is a continuing need for a women’s movement with a strong political voice in America. Eighty-five percent of Gen Y women believe women’s increased participation in political life as candidates is a positive change; 83 percent believe we need to elect more women governors, senators, and congresswomen; and 70 percent think we are likely to have a woman president in the next 20 years.

I take great comfort in the knowledge that, far from being indifferent, young women are attuned to the goals and ideals of the women’s movement. They may be more confident about their own opportunities as women, comfortable with the shift from a manufacturing to an information-based economy, tolerant of cultural diversity, and accepting of gay Americans. But, contrary to popular belief, these young women voters see the need to continue the work we have done to help women take their place at the highest levels of power in America.

As energized as they appear, a major challenge of our WOMEN VOTE! project will be keeping these young women voters engaged and making sure they don’t just vote for president, but support the entire slate of progressive candidates on their ballots in November. A huge majority -- 87 percent -- say who is president makes a difference in their lives, but view electing progressive governors and members of Congress as far less consequential. Giving them the information they need to make educated choices for Congress, state, and local office -- and making sure they understand the direct impact these leaders have on their lives -- is a high priority. If we can’t convince them to support Democrats below the presidential level, it will be much harder to elect enough women to build strong Democratic majorities in Congress and the states.

Momentum builds in Denver

2,600 guests celebrate women at EMILY’s List Gala

The crowd roared at our sold-out event at the Democratic National Convention in appreciation of the powerful women who came before them. Our headliners -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Hillary Clinton, and future First Lady Michelle Obama -- were joined on the stage by a parade of Democratic women, including Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Wisconsin Cong. Gwen Moore, Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire, California Cong. Hilda Solis, and Colorado Cong. Diana DeGette.

It was a big crowd even by our standards, with many Democratic activists and local Denverites who were experiencing EMILY’s List for the first time. I had the honor of hosting this fabulous event, which was broadcast live on our web site and on the sites of major news organizations. You can relive the moment by visiting www.emilyslist.org and watching the event again.

And then there was one. . .

. . .primary, that is. It’s been a long and grueling eight months, but we are finally closing in on our last primary election in New York’s 21st congressional district, an open Democratic seat being sought by attorney Tracey Brooks. Tracey is the only woman in a crowded field that includes a former state legislator and a county legislator, both well-connected party insiders. She recently secured a glowing endorsement from the Albany Times Union, which said Tracey “has worked for and clearly studied one of the Senate’s masters of political fine arts, Hillary Rodham Clinton, who distinguished herself as a freshman senator for her ability to forge bipartisan alliances. She is also the face of a new breed in Congress: young, articulate, forceful, energetic, and progressive.” We’re proud to be backing this rising star. You can learn the results of this Sept. 9 primary by visiting www.emilyslist.org.

In Arizona, former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won the Democratic nomination in the first congressional district, an open GOP-held seat, and will face mining lobbyist Sydney Hay, a conservative woman with backing from a variety of anti-choice and right-wing groups, in November.

I am very disappointed to report that Joan Fitz-Gerald, the first woman Senate president in Colorado history, lost the primary in Colorado’s second congressional district by fewer than 1,900 votes. Joan faced an opponent who spent more than $5 million from his own pocket to win a primary in which only 49,167 people voted! Those financial odds were just too much to overcome. Joan is an extraordinary legislator and political leader and I hope we can find another opportunity for her soon.

New candidates online

The map of promising House campaigns is expanding, with more and more winnable races opening up. You can read about the following congressional candidates and all our EMILY’s List candidates online.

  • Anne Barth in West Virginia’s second district against Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito. A former aide to Sen. Robert C. Byrd, Barth is poised to take back a seat that was in Democratic hands for 18 years before Capito won it in 2000.
  • Sam Bennett in Pennsylvania’s 15th district against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent. In 2006, Dent nearly lost his seat, one of only seven GOP-held seats in the country that voted against Bush in 2004, and faces a tough competitor in Bennett, an innovative community leader.
  • Jill Derby in Nevada’s second district against Republican incumbent Dean Heller. Derby, a native Nevadan with expertise in Middle East affairs, is back for a rematch against Heller, who narrowly defeated her in 2006 in a district that is trending Democratic.
  • Judy Feder in Virginia’s 10th district against Republican incumbent Frank Wolf. Feder, a health care expert who was dean of Georgetown University’s Public Policy Institute, nearly toppled this 28-year incumbent in 2006 in the increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington.
  • Annette Taddeo in Florida’s 18th district against Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Democrat Taddeo, named one of the top 50 Latina entrepreneurs in the country by Hispanic Magazine, is running to unseat Bush loyalist Ros-Lehtinen in this Miami area seat.
  • Vic Wulsin in Ohio’s second district against Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt. Physician Wulsin lost by one percentage point to right-wing lightening rod “Mean Jean” Schmidt in 2006 and is back to unseat this notorious conservative who called former Marine John Murtha (D-Penn.) a “coward” on the floor of the House.

    • Stephanie Tubbs Jones, 1949-2008

    At our convention event, we paid special tribute to Ohio Cong. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, a passionate leader, inspirational speaker, and dear friend who will be deeply missed by those who loved her. Stephanie died suddenly the week before the convention, leaving a gaping hole in so many people’s hearts. At an EMILY’s List event in Washington this past June, Stephanie addressed the crowd with her usual élan, reciting a poem by Mona Lake Jones called “Ready to Unfold.” If you were not with us that day, you can watch the video here on our web site, and hear Stephanie’s unique delivery of a poem that has taken on even more poignancy since her death. Her family and friends have our deepest sympathy.