Polling Update: Gregoire Receives Overwhelming Support in her Race for Governor

In a poll released on Monday December 8, Washington Attorney General Christine Gregoire dominates in both the Democratic primary and the general election. The poll, conducted by pollster Mark Mellman, shows Gregoire leading Democrats Ron Sims and Phil Talmadge in a closed Democratic primary. The poll also shows Gregoire ahead of all opponents, including Republican Dino Rossi, in a blanket non-partisan primary (31% to 22%). In the general election match-up, Gregoire stomps Rossi by a whopping 19 points, 46% to 27%.

Gregoire leads Ron Sims by 29 points, 48% to 19%, and Phil Talmadge by 42 points, 48% to 6%, in a closed Democratic primary. Gregoire's lead in the primary stems from her high favorability ratings, while Ron Sims and Phil Talmadge are neither very well known nor well liked. Sims suffers from low approval ratings in his job as King County Executive as well. Only 25% of voters think he has done a good job while 36% offer negative evaluations of his performance. King County voters give him negative job performance ratings (39% positive, 52% negative).

In the general election, Gregoire's advantage over Rossi extends across key demographic subgroups. Gregoire leads across gender, beating Rossi with women, 49% to 21% and men, 42% to 34%. Both Independents and moderates favor Gregoire over Rossi: Independents, 40% to 14% and moderates, 43% to 21%. Gregoire also leads in every region of the state, holding her biggest advantage in King County, 58% to 21%.

Rossi's anti-choice position puts him far out of step with most Washington voters. Washington is a pro-choice state, with 51% of voters agreeing that abortions should be allowed in most circumstances. His stance on the issue is seen by voters as a compelling reason to vote against him.

This analysis is based on a survey of likely 2004 voters in Washington conducted November 21-24, 2003. The sample included 600 likely general election voters with an oversample that yielded 829 likely primary voters. The margin of error for the general election is 4 points. The margin of error for the primary election is 3.4 points.