August 2008
August 2008 Newsletter
Building a working Democratic majority in 2008
In the last election, the public’s overwhelming desire for change helped sweep 31new Democrats into the House and six into the Senate, giving Democrats control of both chambers for the first time since 1994 and making Nancy Pelosi the first woman Speaker of the House in U.S. history. Two of those new senators and seven new members of Congress were pro-choice Democratic women elected with the help
of EMILY’s List.
“We made great gains in 2006, and since then we’ve added four more women to the House in special elections,” says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List. “But Democrats hold only the barest majority, too narrow to make significant changes. That’s why EMILY’s List is determined to expand Democratic majorities in Congress and the states by backing pro-choice Democratic women candidates and mobilizing millions of women voters on election day.”
Doing the people’s business
Democratic control of Congress has made a major difference in the lives of American families. Since Democrats took over in January 2007,
Congress passed the first federal minimum wage increase in a decade, the largest expansion of college aid since the 1944 G.I. Bill, recovery aid for the Gulf Coast, and implementation of the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations. But Republicans still have just enough leverage to prevent Democratic action on major issues like rising energy costs, the health care crisis, global warming, and, of course, the war in Iraq.
“Using every obstructionist tactic in the book, Republicans have consistently blocked Democrats from passing legislation like the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to help employees sue for pay discrimination, funding for embryonic stem cell research, expanding SCHIP to cover more uninsured children, and ending corporate subsidies for oil and gas companies,” says Malcolm. “Unless we can build a working majority -- adding enough Democrats to join forces with the few remaining moderate Republicans -- we won’t see the change voters are hoping for.”
In addition to moving a progressive issue agenda, a stronger Democratic majority in the Senate will smooth passage for Sen. Barack Obama’s nominees to the federal bench and the Supreme Court, if he wins the election. If McCain becomes president, a stronger Democratic
majority can prevent him from fulfilling his expressed preference for more justices like Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.
Congressional math
Currently there are 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans in the Senate. Two independents, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman
of Connecticut, caucus with the Democrats, giving Democrats a two-seat majority. Vice President Dick Cheney is available to break ties, effectively
reducing the Democratic majority to one.
Twelve Democratic senators are up for re-election in November, and only one is considered vulnerable. However, 17 Republican senators are
facing re-election, with six more retiring -- leaving the GOP with 23 seats to defend in November. Seven Republican incumbents are considered
vulnerable, including two who face challenges from EMILY’s List candidates: Sen. John Sununu vs. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire
and Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. Kay Hagan in North Carolina.
“Defeating a sitting U.S. senator is one of the toughest tasks you can undertake in politics,” says Malcolm. “Incumbents have so much consolidated power, so many connections, so much money to use for re-election. But it is possible: just ask Senators Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, and Maria Cantwell of Washington.”
Republicans have been candid about their concerns for 2008. Nevada Sen. John Ensign, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the PAC charged with electing GOP senators,
told the Los Angeles Times, “If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared.”
In the House, Democrats have a 37-seat majority (236 Democrats, 199 Republicans). With 32 Republicans not seeking election and an additional 18 endangered GOP incumbents, the
2008 election could dramatically alter that landscape.
Pro-choice Democratic women are running in some of the most competitive House races. EMILY’s List has endorsed 24 House candidates, with more endorsements expected before Nov. 4.
Five EMILY’s List candidates are running for Republican open seats: Judy Baker in Missouri 9, Debbie Halvorson in Illinois 11, Mary Jo Kilroy in
Ohio 15, Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona 1, and Linda Stender in New Jersey 7.
Six EMILY’s List candidates are challenging vulnerable Republican incumbents: Kay Barnes in Missouri 6 vs. Cong. Sam Graves; Darcy Burner in Washington 8 vs. Cong. Dave Reichert; Betsy Markey in Colorado 4 vs. Cong. Marilyn Musgrave; Dina Titus in Nevada 3 vs. Cong. Jon Porter; Christine Jennings in Florida 13 vs. Cong. Vern Buchanan (a rematch); and Suzanne Kosmas in Florida 24 vs. Cong. Tom Feeney.
EMILY’s List is backing three women who are running for open House seats that lean Democratic: attorney Tracey Brooks in New York 21, whose primary is Sept. 9; former state Sen. Chel- lie Pingree in Maine 1, who won Maine’s June 10 primary and is heavily favored to win in November; and former state Sen. Joan Fitz-Gerald in Colorado 2, whose
primary is August 12 (check www.emilyslist.org for results).
Finally, EMILY’s List has recommended four endangered House incumbents to members for support: Cong. Melissa Bean in Illinois 8; Cong. Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona 8; Cong. Kirsten Gillibrand in New
York 20; and Cong. Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire 1.
“We have a record number of outstanding candidates this cycle,” says Malcolm. “But Republicans can count on amply funded third-party groups like Freedom’s Watch to do their dirty work -- it’s already happening in some races. We are in for a brutal battle.”
Control in the states
Expanding Democratic control in the states is critical as the 2010 Census and subsequent congressional redistricting approach.
In most states, redrawing congressional district boundaries falls to the governor and the two houses of the state legislature. All states, regardless of population changes, will redraw their congressional map before the 2012 election -- creating an uncertain environment for incumbents and giving newcomers a rare chance to break into Congress.
“The party that controls this process wields tremendous power,” says Ellen Moran, executive director of EMILY’s List. “We need more democratic state legislators and governors to make sure the new maps are fair.”
In 2006, EMILY’s List helped Democrats win control of seven legislative chambers — the Iowa House and Senate, the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, the New Hampshire Senate, the Oregon House, and the
Pennsylvania House -- by supporting state legislative candidates through our Political Opportunity Program (POP)
In 2008, POP is working with candidates and Democratic caucuses to protect these gains and close the gap in narrowly divided chambers, like the Montana House and the Nevada Senate, where Republicans hold a one vote majority.
Electing women governors has proven to be challenging. There are fewer opportunities relative to the Senate and House.
“Most states limit governors to two terms, so it’s a bit of a zero-sum game,” says Moran. “Every time we add a new woman governor in one state, we are likely losing another one elsewhere due to term limits. Of the five Democratic women governors serving today — Janet
Napolitano of Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Ruth Ann Minner of Delaware, Jennifer Granholm of Michigan, and Chris Gregoire of Washington — all but Gregoire are in their second term and barred from
seeking a third.”
EMILY’s List is backing three pro-choice Democratic women candidates for governor in 2008: Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue in North Carolina, former Cong. Jill Long Thompson in Indiana, and Gov. Gregoire in Washington. Perdue and Thompson won contested primary victories in May. Now Perdue must defeat Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Bush appointee whose ties to the White House are helping him raise campaign cash. Long Thompson faces Gov. Mitch Daniels, Bush’s former Office of Management and Budget director and a wealthy ex-pharmaceutical executive. The Obama campaign is expected to be active in North Carolina and Indiana, which will help all Democrats in these traditionally red states.
Gregoire has been an innovative and courageous leader for her state, defending reproductive freedom, protecting the environment, strengthening schools, and expanding health care. Forbes magazine named Washington one of the best states to do business in, and the
Pew Center on the States ranked it as one of the three best-managed states in the nation.
Nevertheless, Gregoire is probably the most endangered incumbent governor of 2008. She defeated former state Sen. Dino Rossi in 2004 by only 129 votes; he is running again, and most polls show Gregoire with only a narrow lead. Rossi caught up with Gregoire in fundraising during
the legislative session, when state law prevented her from raising any money. His allies on the right are attacking Gregoire with vicious and misleading ads. The Republican Governors’ Association, which is expected to raise a record $30 million this cycle, will spend millions on behalf of Rossi and all 2008 GOP gubernatorial candidates.
The linchpin for Democratic success
“In the end, it all comes down to women voters,” says Malcolm. “They hold the power. Whether they vote, and how, will make the difference for Democrats up and down the ticket.”
In 2004, women were 54 percent of the electorate and voted for John Kerry by a margin of three points. In 1996, women voters favored Bill Clinton by a 16-point margin; in 2000, Al Gore won women by an 11-point margin.
“Democrats have to improve on Kerry’s performance with women to win in 2008,” says Maren Hesla, EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! director. “We’re executing a comprehensive plan to turn out the women we need to build
stronger Democratic majorities in Congress and the states, and put Barack Obama in the White House.”
EMILY’s List is raising $15 million for WOMEN VOTE! 2008, with the goal of mobilizing nearly 6.5 million women voters. The effort includes cutting-edge research that will yield lasting benefits beyond the 2008 election.
“We have three research goals,” says Hesla. “We want to deepen our understanding of the women’s electorate, honing in on key demographic groups. In anticipation of GOP attacks on divisive issues like immigration and national security, we are developing strategies Democrats can use to
deflect these attacks and take control of the debate. Finally, we want to improve the effectiveness of our voter contact. How do women in different demographic groups gather information? What grabs their attention? How does the timing of voter contact affect a woman’s voting decisions?”
As always, EMILY’s List will share data with the Democratic community, so that our progressive allies have the best possible information for their own political efforts. “Everything we do is designed to fulfill our motto, ‘win today and build for tomorrow,’” says Malcolm.
Time to Win
Editorial by Ellen R. Malcolm, President
We are less than 11 weeks out from one of the most critical elections of
our lifetime. For eight years, George W. Bush and his Republican allies
have wrought havoc on our country. Will their policies continue under
the leadership of President John McCain -- or will Americans elect Barack Obama president and Democrats up and down the ticket, and change the
direction of our country?
I’m confident in our party’s ability to bring about change in November -- and in the power of women to make that change happen.
EMILY’s List is backing some of the most experienced, qualified, and effective candidates I’ve seen since our founding 23 years ago. From Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire to Chris Gregoire in Washington, from Chellie Pingree in Maine to Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, and all points in between -- these women are ready to move our country in a new direction.
I won’t pretend it’s been easy letting go of the dream of electing the
first woman president. Those of us who supported Sen. Hillary Clinton’s
historic campaign have had some healing to do since the primary
campaign concluded. I will forever be proud of Hillary, a
woman of remarkable intelligence, strength, humor, and dignity, and of
the role EMILY’s List played in her campaign. So many members and
staff put their hearts and souls into making our dream a reality. They
gave so much more than money; many traveled to primary states to
make phone calls, walk precincts, and turn out voters.
Now the convention is approaching and our presumptive nominee,
Sen. Barack Obama, is building a powerful campaign. Democrats are
well-positioned to finally retake the White House and build an America
that makes us proud.
Women voters are again the key to victory for Democrats. For months, EMILY’s List has been laying the groundwork for our most comprehensive voter mobilization effort ever, EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! 2008, which has already been instrumental in critical primary and special election victories.
Make no mistake: it’s going to be a nasty, nasty campaign. It already
is. Understanding the depth of their vulnerability, Republicans and their allies on the right went on the attack particularly early this year.
Our pro-choice Democratic women are taking direct hits from their
opponents and defending themselves against vile, misleading attacks from corporate and right-wing third party groups. EMILY’s List will make sure our candidates have the tools they need to steer the debate back to what’s really at stake in this election -- strengthening the economy, ending the war, providing affordable health care, and protecting the environment -- and remind Americans of the abysmal mess Republicans have made.
Republicans will do everything they can to win, but they are up against a very, very powerful force: the 100,000 members of EMILY’s List. We are going to tap every available resource to unleash the power of women in 2008 and create victories up and down the ticket on Nov. 4.
So buckle your seat belts, because we’re in for a bumpy ride — but the country shares our passion for change. And with your continued support, I’m certain: it’s time to win!
What's Cooking?
Political news from Washington and around the country
John McCain is determined to show the right wing that he’s one of them … in a May speech, he promised to embrace the Bush philosophy that produced jurists like John Roberts and Samuel Alito … he announced the co-chairs of his “Justice Advisory Committee”: ex-Solicitor General Ted Olson, who represented Bush in Bush v. Gore, and Sen. Sam Brownback, who sponsored a resolution designating the first weekend of
May 2008 “Ten Commandments Weekend” … McCain has promised to “highlight his pro-life record and views on other social issues” in his campaign ...maybe that’s why the GOP is losing folks like Harriet Stinson ... after 60 years as a Republican, Stinson, the 82-year old founder of California Republicans for Choice, re-registered in June as a Democrat … “I couldn’t take it anymore,”.she said, noting that on choice, contraceptive funding and sex education, McCain “couldn’t be worse.”
Vern Buchanan, the Florida Republican congressman facing EMILY’s List
candidate Christine Jennings, can’t seem to stay out of trouble … nor can
his attorney … Buchanan’s personal lawyer, Daryl J. Brown, has been suspended by the Florida Bar twice … his first suspension had to do with campaign finance violations … that makes him a perfect fit for Vern, who has been accused of illegally funneling corporate donations through his businesses and into his campaign.
Conservatives are on the attack earlier every year … the ultra-conservative Building Industry Association of Washington’s It’s Time for a Change PAC placed a sizable television buy attacking Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire … BIAW doesn’t shy away from hyperbole, referring to Gregoire in a mailing as “a heartless, power-hungry she-wolf who would eat her own young” … Americans for Job Security, the corporate front group Public Citizen calls “Corporations Influencing Elections,” ran radio spots in New Hampshire attacking Democratic Senate challenger Jeanne Shaheen … the group spent millions of dollars in past elections slamming Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Maria Cantwell.
President Bush may be a lame duck, but he’s still the fundraiser-in-chief …
Bush has raised more than $134 million for Republican candidates and party committees in the 2008 election cycle … he’s held more than 30 events in 2008, all but four in private homes of wealthy Republicans or at posh hotels … several candidates running against EMILY’s List women have benefited from Bush’s golden touch … these include Arizona congressional candidate Tim Bee, who’s challenging Rep. Gabrielle Giffords … Bush’s fundraiser for Bee raised more than $500,000 … North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory, who faces Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, banked about $400,000 from his private fundraiser with Bush … and Missouri Cong. Sam Graves, who faces his toughest challenger in former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, got more than $500,000 when Bush shook the money tree for him … Graves is one of only three House incumbents for whom Bush has personally headlined fundraisers.
McCrory didn’t do himself any favors with North Carolina voters at a recent debate when he criticized Tarheel TV icon Andy Griffith … noting that actor Griffith often supports Democratic candidates (Griffith endorsed Bev Perdue in April), McCrory suggested that Griffith’s character on his 1960s television show would bemoan the “revolving door” of today’s criminal justice system, suggesting that Otis, Mayberry’s town drunk, might be forced to share a cell with “dangerous people” … no mention of Opie, Barney Fife, or Aunt Bee … when asked to comment, Gomer Pyle shook his head wearily and said, “Shazam!”
Republicans in North Carolina must be drinking from the same still … how
else to explain Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s effort to name a $50 billion global AIDS relief bill after her predecessor, the late Sen. Jesse Helms? … an unapologetic homophobe, Helms once said, “There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy” … while Helms eventually supported African AIDS relief at the behest of Irish rocker Bono, he never softened his stance on gay Americans dying of AIDS ... Dole’s failed gesture didn’t help her in a tough race against
Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan …several polls show Hagan within striking distance of the incumbent.
Candidate Spotlight: Ann Kirkpatrick
One of the top Democratic takeover opportunities of 2008 is in Arizona’s first district, where GOP Congressman, Rick Renzi has been indicted on 35 counts of federal corruption and is not seeking re-election. The leading Democrat to replace him is former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a progressive leader who helped pass legislation to strengthen domestic violence laws, expand health care for children, foster economic development, and protect the environment. Born and raised on Apache land, Kirkpatrick was the first woman prosecutor of Coconino County.
She is likely to face Republican Sydney Hay in November. A right-wing activist and lobbyist for the mining industry, Hay has been endorsed by several anti-choice groups. She is far to the right of this district’s voters, but her ability to self-finance could seriously threaten Kirkpatrick’s takeover bid.
Kirkpatrick is the Democrats’ best hope to take over this swing seat. She spoke recently with EMILY’s List about her campaign and what she would like to do for the people of this district.
What drew you into politics?
My family was involved in politics, so it wasn’t uncommon to talk about politics at the dinner table, and I was encouraged to pay attention to issues. I never thought of myself as a candidate until four years ago, when some friends came to me and said we want you to run for the legislature. The district included five Native American tribes, and because I grew up on tribal land they thought that would be a good fit. I decided to run, and I found that I really enjoyed talking to people about their lives and concerns. I was motivated by the fact that people are not complacent, and they do care about their country and want good leadership. I ran for two terms and won overwhelmingly. Then a year ago I was approached to run for this congressional seat.
How did being a prosecutor prepare you for politics?
It gave me great insight into the variety of people’s lives and, in many cases, the severe hardships they face. I was the first female prosecutor in Coconino County, and I soon realized that a lot of crimes against women were not being reported. At that time, there were no women police officers, and I was the only woman prosecutor. I helped set up victim support programs and sexual assault centers to help women navigate the criminal justice system and make sure they testify against their attackers. In the legislature, I helped secure funding for these programs.
What do you see as the biggest challenge in your campaign?
This is a huge, largely rural district. There are 11 tribes, and the median annual income in Indian country is $7,000. For families that don’t live in Indian country, the median annual income is about $32,000. Many of these families have no electricity or running water. There’s a high incidence of diabetes on tribal land. Without electricity, people can’t have refrigerators -- so they can’t keep the kind of food they need to control their diabetes, like fresh fruits and vegetables. This has a profound effect on their health.
What do you tell the people who live in these communities?
I have a plan. I’m meeting with a factory in Flagstaff that makes stand-alone wind generators and working to get tax incentives to make these units affordable. It’s the ideal answer for the electrical problem, but clean running water is more complex. If I’m elected, I want to put together a western water caucus in Congress. Water is a regional issue and I think if we work together we can come up with some solutions.
What would you like your political legacy to be?
This is my vision: every household has electricity and running water, and there’s a comprehensive telecommunications network -- broadband and cell phone coverage -- throughout the district. I want to expand the production and use of green technology by encouraging companies that manufacture energy-efficient devices to open plants in the district. Once we’ve started building that economic base, we can begin to address other critical needs, like health care and education. Right now, people have to travel great distances -- 150 to 200 miles -- to get to a doctor. There’s no money for clinics and we can’t keep doctors; most of the first responders in these poor communities are nurse practitioners. In the legislature, I worked to expand the services nurse practitioners can provide, so they can do a lot more for residents. If we improved telecommunications, they could have direct contact with physicians at regional medical centers and better operate in rural outposts.