May 2007

Getting an Early Start for 2008

The 2008 election is more than a year off, but campaigns are already under way with a kind of intensity not typically seen this early in the election cycle.

While the race for the White House dominates news headlines and the public imagination, Democratic congressional candidates, particularly those elected by narrow margins in 2006, are working to overcome fierce GOP determination to take back the reins of government and make Nancy Pelosi a one-term Speaker.

EMILY's List's political staff is preparing for 2008 in every possible way: helping newly elected women build winning re-election efforts; talking with women who are preparing to run; analyzing the electoral map for promising opportunities to elect more women; and recruiting strong candidates who can help Democrats stay in the majority.

"The 2008 campaign started the day after the 2006 election," says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "Republicans are reviewing the same data we are, looking for opportunities to unseat vulnerable Democrats and take back Congress. EMILY's List is getting an early start to provide pro-choice Democratic women with the support and resources they need to compete."

Tough challenges ahead

Lower voter turnout in the nonpresidential year benefited many Democrats in 2006, as discouraged Republican voters stayed home. According to the National Committee for an Effective Congress, in 2006 Democrats won 42 Republican-leaning House seats that voted for Bush in 2004. Women hold seven of these seats.

"Republicans were disgusted by GOP corruption and incompetence," Malcolm says. "But circumstances in 2008 will be quite different. The White House is at stake, and the Republican Party will invest massive resources to turn out their vote. It won't be easy to hold these GOP-leaning seats and maintain Democratic control of Congress."

To counteract higher GOP turnout, Malcolm says, "EMILY's List is planning its biggest WOMEN VOTE! project ever — one strong enough to elect Democratic women from the state House to the White House."

Making history on a national level

In January, EMILY's List became part of the effort to elect the first woman president by making an early endorsement of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's frontrunning presidential bid.

"EMILY's List has been clearing the path for the first woman president since our founding in 1985, when we helped Barbara Mikulski (Md.) become the first Democratic woman elected to the Senate in her own right," says Malcolm.

"Since then, we've added 12 more Democratic women to the Senate and 67 to the House. We've helped elect hundreds of women to state and local office, including eight pro-choice Democratic women governors.

"We've put women in executive leadership positions where none had served before. All these victories have set the stage to elect Hillary Clinton as the first woman president of the United States."

EMILY's List members are contributing early money to Clinton's campaign. In addition, says Malcolm, "We are tapping our political resources to help Hillary Clinton build a strong national campaign, including mobilizing millions of women voters through our WOMEN VOTE! program to support her and every Democrat on the ticket in 2008."

Defending our gains

The Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006 ushered in a new era in Washington, ending the Republican stranglehold on the federal government and creating a long overdue check on the Bush administration's radical agenda. But no sooner had the new Congress been sworn in — with Pelosi as the first woman Speaker — when Republicans began strategizing on how to take back control.

"Republicans are desperate to regain power," says Malcolm, "and they think they can do it by going after the freshmen — in some cases with the same old right-wing Bush clones who lost in 2006."

That's what's happening in New Hampshire's first congressional district, where Democrat Carol Shea-Porter ran a low-budget stealth campaign that unseated Republican Jeb Bradley in perhaps the most notable upset of 2006.

Strong Democratic momentum, anti-incumbent fervor, and low GOP turnout helped Shea-Porter unseat an incumbent with a much larger war chest and a history of winning re-election by 20 points. Shea-Porter defeated Bradley by three points, one of the narrowest margins of 2006 — placing her among the most vulnerable Democrats in 2008.

Shea-Porter is running in an especially difficult political climate. New Hampshire is a presidential battleground, and GOP Sen. John Sununu (who once held this seat) is up for re-election. Republican turnout will certainly increase as a result.

"Carol is no longer under the radar," says Malcolm. "She'll need to run a very different kind of campaign to defend herself against the GOP attacks she escaped in 2006, win a second term, and help Democrats keep control of the U.S. House."

Another woman likely to be affected by higher GOP turnout is Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y. 20), whose seat will be heavily targeted by Republicans. A solidly blue state, New York will not be a top priority for the Democratic presidential nominee, so Gillibrand cannot count on strong coattails to boost her re-election bid in a very Republican district.

Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords took over a seat that had been in GOP hands for more than 20 years. Her campaign benefited from the extreme right-wing views of her opponent, who was far out of the mainstream.

"Republicans won't make the same mistakes in 2008," says Malcolm. "They are looking for a candidate who presents a more moderate image to voters."

Giffords, Gillibrand, and Shea-Porter have demonstrated uncommon leadership in their first few months in Congress. All are on the House Armed Services Committee, working with Speaker Pelosi to bring stability to Iraq and provide a peaceful alternative to Bush's failed strategy. They voted to end the ban on federal funding for stem cell research, to raise the minimum wage, to bring down the cost of prescription drugs, and to make college more affordable. EMILY's List has recommended them to members for early support in its first candidate mailing.

"These talented women leaders are representing their constituents with dignity and strength," says Malcolm. "But Republicans will take every opportunity to bring them down. If we want Nancy Pelosi to have a second term as Speaker, we have to help them build strong campaigns that will help them overcome well-funded Republican opponents."

Achieving new victories

Opportunities to add new women to Congress are emerging, with a special election in Massachusetts and House seats opening up due to incumbents seeking higher office.

Colorado Rep. Mark Udall's decision to run for the U.S. Senate leaves his Democratic House seat up for grabs. State Sen. Joan Fitz-Gerald is exploring a bid; she is likely to face at least two opponents in the August 2008 primary. EMILY's List has a longstanding relationship with Fitz-Gerald through the Political Opportunity Program (POP), whose support in 2004 helped Democrats take control of the state Senate and make Fitz-Gerald its president.

In Maine's first congressional district, Rep. Tom Allen is expected to challenge U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, vacating another Democratic-leaning seat. If he does, former state Sen. Chellie Pingree, who ran against Collins in 2002, has made it known that she will seek Allen's seat. Pingree resigned her position as president of Common Cause in anticipation of running for Congress.

U.S. Rep. Marty Meehan accepted the position of chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, putting the solidly Democratic fifth district seat in play for a special election. Two pro-choice Democratic women are among many Democrats likely to run: Niki Tsongas, a lawyer, university executive, and widow of former Sen. Paul Tsongas; and Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue, a former two-term mayor.

"Massachusetts has never sent a Democratic woman to Congress," notes Ellen Moran, EMILY's List's executive director. "We are eager to help make state history."

The representative in Illinois's fourth congressional district, Luis Gutierrez, has announced that he will not seek a ninth term in 2008. State Sen. Iris Martinez and state Rep. Susan Mendoza are considering jumping into the crowded race for his Chicago area district; both have ties to EMILY's List's Political Opportunity Program.

"We have so many early opportunities to elect more women to Democratic seats," says Moran. "Making sure women gain the early advantage in these races is critical to achieving parity in Congress."

Democratic women who narrowly lost in 2006 are eyeing rematches in 2008. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner has announced she will run against Rep. Dave Reichert for his Seattle area seat. This district, which voted for Kerry in 2004, is ripe for Democratic takeover.

In Ohio, physician and public health expert Vic Wulsin is planning a rematch against Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt in the second district. Schmidt has been a controversial character in Congress ever since she called Rep. John Murtha, a former Marine, a "coward" for proposing troop withdrawal from Iraq. Recently she referred to the reports of neglect at Walter Reed Army Medical Center as "overblown."

Lessons of 2006 strengthen WOMEN VOTE!

Democrats could not have taken control of Congress and several state legislative chambers without the support of women voters. Democratic candidates made gains among key blocs of women, including Latinas, whose support increased by 18 points.

The narrow margin of Democratic control in Congress and the fragile hold many Democratic freshmen have on their seats exponentially increases the importance of women voters in the 2008 election.

According to Maren Hesla, director of EMILY's List's WOMEN VOTE! project, "We learned important lessons in 2006 that will increase the efficiency and reach of our voter contact operation."

EMILY's List ran a particularly comprehensive voter contact program in Michigan, where Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow faced strong challengers.

"We used marketing and census data to enhance the state's voter file, then identified clusters of voters based on like characteristics," says Hesla. "‘Microtargeting' in this way enabled us to identify distinct groups of women voters and tailor our contact to their issue priorities."

Targeted women were assigned scores based on various criteria, including the strength of their support for Granholm and likelihood of voting. To help evaluate the program after the election, we established a control group of women who received no contact at all.

Research shows that people remember messages better when they receive phone calls before and after receiving a mail piece. "We used this ‘sandwich' formula to contact targeted voters by phone, then by mail, then again by phone," says Hesla.

After the election, EMILY's List surveyed voters in the control group and women who received WOMEN VOTE! contact.

"Our polling indicates that women who received ‘sandwich' contact voted in higher numbers, held sharper perceptions of the candidates for governor, and reported higher support for Granholm than those in the control group," Hesla says. "They reported voting for Granholm over her GOP challenger, Dick DeVos, by a seven percent greater margin than the control group."

Ultimately, women made up 52 percent of the Michigan electorate in 2006; 60 percent of women supported Jennifer Granholm.

To counteract higher GOP turnout in the 2008 election, Hesla says, "WOMEN VOTE! will need to work on a larger scale to persuade moderate Republican and independent women voters and mobilize even more Democratic women voters. Strong support from women voters will help Democrats stay in charge of Congress, increase our power in the states, and elect a Democratic president."

What's Cooking

What a dramatic contrast between local and national press coverage ... case in point: when Sen. Hillary Clinton visited New Hampshire in February, local papers described voters who were "won over," "had a much more positive feeling about her," and were "100 percent behind her" ... the rest of America got trapped in the echo chamber of the national press, which focused exclusively on one New Hampshire man who asked Clinton about her Iraq vote ... Clinton is crystal clear on the matter ... in a speech to EMILY's List members in March, she condemned the Bush administration's stubborn incompetence, pledging, "If this president will not end the war in Iraq, then as the next president, I will."

Chivalry is on life support in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus ... Rep. Joe Baca, CHC chair, allegedly called Rep. Loretta Sanchez, his Democratic colleague and fellow Californian, a "whore" ... Sanchez has resigned from the Caucus, noting the general lack of respect for women ... she told The Politico, "There is a big rift. Hello? Do they not get this?"

Political scientist and commentator Larry J. Sabato sees a tough but exciting race ahead for Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire ... in his "Crystal Ball" newsletter, Sabato calls Gregoire "the only truly endangered governor" of 2008 and writes, "This will be one heck of a race, quite possibly the best in the nation" ... in the 2004 election, Gregoire defeated Republican Dino Rossi by 129 votes out of 2.8 million cast ... he appears to be gearing up for a rematch ... Gregoire has expanded health care coverage to tens of thousands of children who were left behind by the budget Rossi negotiated as chair of the Senate Budget Committee ... she has raised more than $1.6 million to defend herself against a GOP challenge.

Vice President Dick Cheney must not get cable at his undisclosed location ... how else to account for the fact that he seems to have no clue that things aren't going well in Iraq ... Cheney continues to impugn the patriotism of anyone who disagrees with the administration's failed policy ... Cheney told ABC News that the Democratic resolution opposing the Bush troop surge would "validate the al Qaeda strategy" ... House Speaker Nancy Pelosi fired back ... "You cannot say as the president of the United States, ‘I welcome disagreement in a time of war,' and then have the vice president of the United States ... mischaracterize a position of the Speaker of the House and in a manner that says that person ... is acting against the national security of our country" ... there's a new Speaker in town — one who won't let Cheney go unanswered.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' star is rising fast in Congress ... the Arizona Democrat has been named vice chair of the House Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment, which oversees research on energy and conservation ... freshmen are not typically given leadership slots ... this will boost Giffords in her GOP-leaning district, where she is expected to face a tough re-election challenge in 2008.

The Democratic takeover of Congress put women in charge ... besides Speaker Pelosi, Democratic congresswomen hold power on committees and in the Democratic caucus ... Juanita Millender-McDonald (Calif.) chairs the House Administration Committee ... Stephanie Tubbs Jones (Ohio) chairs the House Ethics Committee ... Carolyn Maloney (N.Y.) is vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee ... Nydia Velazquez (N.Y.) is chair of the Small Business Committee — the first Hispanic woman in charge of a House committee ... Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) co-chairs the Democratic Steering Committee ... Hilda L. Solis (Calif.) is her vice chair ... and Jan Schakowsky (Ill.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), Diana DeGette (Colo.), and Maxine Waters (Calif.) are chief deputy whips, charged with unifying the Democratic caucus.

In the Senate, Patty Murray (Wash.) is Democratic conference secretary, the fourth-ranking slot in the Democratic leadership ... Barbara Boxer (Calif.) is chief deputy whip and chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee ... Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) leads the Rules Committee ... and the dean of Senate women, Barbara Mikulski (Md.), chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, and Science.

Among the governors, Democratic women hold national leadership roles ... Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano is chair of the National Governors Association, and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is chair of the Democratic Governors Association ... both women take charge as Democrats enjoy their first gubernatorial majority in 12 years ... worth noting: the states with Democratic governors have a total of 295 electoral votes ... it takes 270 to win the presidency.

While all the GOP presidential hopefuls are bowing and scraping for approval from social conservatives, three in particular are trying to make up for lost time ... straight-talkin' Arizona Sen. John McCain once denounced Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, and Gary Bauer as "thugs," calling them "agents of intolerance" ... flash forward six years: McCain patches things up with Falwell and delivers the 2006 commencement speech at Falwell's Liberty University ...

Then there's Gov. Mitt Romney ... in his 1994 challenge to Sen. Ted Kennedy, Romney tied himself in knots trying to convince the state's pro-choice majority he was with them ... in 2002, he promised to "preserve and protect" choice ... flash forward to today ... Romney denounces Roe v. Wade and says, "I am firmly pro-life" ... in 1994, Romney said he could "do more for the cause of gay rights" than Kennedy and got the endorsement of the Log Cabin Republicans in 2002 ... now that he's running for president, he's done a 180 on gay rights, strongly backing a bill in the state legislature to ban gay marriage and saying that same-sex parenting endangers children ...

Finally, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has a little bit more backpedaling to do ... Giuliani could not have won in the very blue Big Apple without solid pro-choice, anti-gun, gay-friendly credentials ... today he's promising to nominate Supreme Court justices likely to overturn Roe v. Wade and pledging not to overturn the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits Medicaid funding for poor women seeking abortions — and which he once opposed ... in 2006, Giuliani campaigned for GOP candidates Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition, and Rick Santorum, who redefined fringe as a member of the U.S. Senate ... both lost ... perhaps that is a message for you, Rudy.

Celebrating Women in Power

EMILY's List members honor Speaker Pelosi

More than 1,300 EMILY's List members came together at the March 6 EMILY's List Women in Power luncheon in Washington, D.C., to celebrate the historic Democratic victories of 2006 and honor America's first woman Speaker of the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California.

"You and I have worked so hard to make it possible for women to lead our government," said EMILY's List President Ellen R. Malcolm. "And what an honor it is to salute the leadership of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who wields the gavel of power with strength, grace, dignity, and civility."

In her remarks, Pelosi talked about having the courage to fight for progress, to oppose Bush's Iraq policy, to stamp out corruption, and to stand up for progressive values.

"In the first 100 hours, House Democrats took our country in a new direction — a direction demanded by the American people," Pelosi said. "With women in the lead, we passed legislation to drain the swamp of corruption with tough ethics reform ... to make our economy more fair by raising the minimum wage ... to make college more accessible by cutting interest rates on student loans by half ... to make prescription drugs more affordable — and that was just in the first 100 hours!"

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the frontrunning candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, paid tribute to the history EMILY's List has made by giving women candidates the opportunity to compete on a level playing field. Clinton talked about her presidential campaign as an attempt to break the "hardest and highest of glass ceilings."

"Today, women are a majority of the voters, a majority of students in college, and we are a growing presence in the Congress. But there are still far too few women in leadership positions," Clinton said. "When we throw open the doors of opportunity and break those glass ceilings, then we give everyone in America a chance to be all that he or she can be."

EMILY's List members also heard from the two newest pro-choice Democratic women in the U.S. Senate: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill.

Klobuchar talked about her hope for the future and thanked EMILY's List members for their support, noting the difference early money made in her race. Klobuchar said,

"I'm here, thanks to thousands of EMILY's List members who took a cue from their fearless leader, Ellen Malcolm, that early support not only makes a difference, it IS the difference."

McCaskill also thanked EMILY's List members for their support and confidence, which helped her unseat a powerful GOP incumbent senator and put Democrats in control of the Senate. She called standing in front of so many enthusiastic EMILY's List members, and in the presence of Speaker Pelosi, a "pinch me" moment.

Dozens of Democratic women leaders from Congress and the states took part in the celebration, which also honored the many historic firsts members have helped EMILY's List achieve over the past 22 years.